thing is.. how many people would actually walk past almost a grand's worth of bike standing unclaimed in the street?
Of those who wouldnt walk past, stop to look.. how many would want to play with it: move it down the street a bit? especially as the game has been made public, and therefore all the pranksters will come out of their hidey-holes
If he had a gps locater on it and had engraved his drivers license ID on it, i would say it would be a fairer experiment to him. The bike will be stolen. If they'll(yes, the they who steal shit from you when you most need it, and cant afford it) take your bike lights off your bike, and unsecured wheels from you, what exactly is protecting a bike worth this much from the theives in this city?
I'm with speedy, it only takes 0.01% of the population (but to be fairer to well travelled streets 0.001% would be a little more accurate I reckon) and the bike is still 100% gone.
multiply the % of people who would steal the bike by occasions and then multiply by the time left unlocked - I'd be surprised if the bike wasn't taken within 72hrs of 'unlocked in public' time, let alone a month, or even a year's commute. Although I guess it also is relevant to places left, for how long, and within viewing distance of this person or not