Does anyone on here know much about currency forecasts? Specifically I want to buy some bike shit on the internet and I need to know whether the forecast for the next month is positive or negative. Ie, should I just buy stuff now, or wait a month?
Yes, I’m serious!
I have a few friends heading to the states in a few months, one says it’s forecast to drop to 75c soon, the other is more optimistic. But it’s 84 odd cents man, thats fucking great as it is. I was in New York once when it was 56c!
its anyone’s guess really… if it was possible to accurately forecast, then we could make lots of monies.
however, between now and a month, i’m guessing there won’t be a whole heap of change. interest rates probably won’t go up next month because of probable election, and even if they do it’ll only shift the AUD up a few cents. also, if there are more signs of double dip recession, AUD will go down.
in conclusion, NFI, and at .85 it aint to bad, so buy buy buy.
Ah I see there are other closet forecasters on the forum…
Thanks.
I’m going to America in September and am also very interested in this.
I am interested if I should be changing cash now or closer to teh date. I’m pretty happy getting .82 for it, which is what I saw today. Getting .90 would be much better, but I’m not sure I’d like to take the gamble in the hop of it going up.
My girlfriend went to NY two years ago. booked some stuff when the dollar was .91ish, when she arrived it was .68ish!
Unless you plan on spending millions, the next few months will make SFA difference to you. I believe it to rise back into the 90s, but this will likely take another 6 months, with a possible minor dip prior.
5c is a massive move in either direction (over a month), thats $50 for every $1000 you spend quite neglegiable considering how bigger move it would be.
exactly
if it goes up or down 5c each way it will barely effect you
if it goes up or (more importantly) down 30c you have some other things to think about like maybe trying to stay employed and/or hunting for food in the local national park
The AUD is a global growth proxy, due to the uncertainty and volatility in the market at the moment. Adding to the fact that indicators show a slowing down of GDP growth in China, I would be buying my stuff now.
If I were travelling to the US and knew the approximate figure I was going to spend, I would hedge my bets and buy half now and half later.
Forecasts have put it in the mid 80s to low 90s for some time to come. haven’t seen anything about a drop into the 50s or 60s though.
Firstly - most of the major banks publish economic forecasts, which are quite good if you do a lot of buying/selling and are interesting if you are, like me, perverted. There is a LOT of factors that determine how the dollar will fare, so read up before spending BIG or if you are travelling for a long time.
+1 - Although there was a recent rise in the dollar due to the halt in rates rises and the possiblity of a further increase, most analysts are suggesting it will decline over the year (although I haven’t seen anyone predicting armaggedon). This is due to global concerns on Europe, the possible double-dip recession and china’s growth lagging (AUD is seen as risky, so any global uncertainty turns it into a bit of a currency whipping boy in favour of “safe” currencies like the Yen and USD)
If it was me, I would probably buy most of the things you want now. Although the AUD could rise, I wouldn’t think that it would rise that much to make me feel bad about buying now and being safe. But you never know, foreign exchange is a harsh mistress - so don’t rub it in my face if this post is wrong 2 months on!
On another note - it seems there are lots of us going to the US in September (me included), NY beer-o-clock anyone?
As stated above, no-one really knows. So many different factors at play that it pretty much becomes a black art.
UBS economists are estimating the dollar to hit US0.93 by Sept/Dec, and keep climbing through next year, up to around .95; but then economists have been predicting parity for the last couple of years.
I’m heading to Europe in a month for at least six, any wise forcasting for EUD Vs AUD?
Are you saying the dollar (and which dollar?) rose recently due to a halt in rate rises, or because the rates were expected to decrease and didn’t, or because there is new expectation of future rate increases?
“Safe” - heh.
Jealous. Most are saying the Euro is going to drop drop drop.
Sorry if not clear - AUD rose as many thought rates may be cut - not merely halted.
Haha you’re headig to US so no need for jealousy,
So the value of the euro will continue to drop and the AUD will buy more?
This is one thread which is sure to be thwarted with conflicting opinions in the present fiscal climate.
I’ve my own ideas - but just like everyone elses here - they are mere speculations based on an extensive array of factors and, more importantly, the converse of any such speculation could similarly be substantiated depending on the data/information used to support the refutation.
That said, and as previously intimated by others above, the timeline and magnitude of funds involved leave the likely effect to be negligible at best - save for an armageddonesque event, in which case the purchase of bike parts will certainly be the least of your concerns.
Okay this thread is getting kinda technical… 
So ‘in a nutshell’ AUD vs GBP or AUD vs USD buy now or buy later?
(actually that’s an interesting question, how does the AUD vs GBP and AUD vs USD interact?)
my thoughts exactly, way to bring it bacy for the layman forcaster
The dollars good now. Buy now. At this exchange rate it hurts more when it goes down before you buy than when it goes up after…